Energy & Resources
The USGS annual Mineral Commodity Summaries is the boring reference document that organises Western critical-minerals policy. For rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and graphite the concentration patterns are real — and more complicated than the 'China dominance' headline suggests.
Mining concentration and refining concentration are different problems. Most of the policy is about refining. Most of the press is about mining.
Refined rare-earth output: China 87%, Malaysia 5%, Estonia 1%, US 1% (USGS MCS 2024 estimates).
Energy & Resources
Roughly 12% of seaborne trade moves through the Red Sea. Houthi missile attacks beginning in late 2023 cut that volume by more than half within weeks, forcing Asia-Europe shipping around the Cape of Good Hope and adding 10–14 days to delivery times.
A non-state actor with anti-ship missiles can move global container rates more than a Federal Reserve decision.
Suez Canal transits fell ~60% between Nov 2023 and Feb 2024 (PortWatch data)
Energy & Resources
Three years after Nord Stream's destruction, the EU has cut Russian pipeline gas to near zero and replaced about 60% of the lost volume with LNG. The transition has been operationally successful and structurally expensive. German industry is still adjusting.
BASF's Ludwigshafen reshuffle is the most expensive industrial bet on energy prices European capitalism has made in fifty years.
Russian pipeline gas to EU: 155 bcm in 2021, ~20 bcm in 2024 (Bruegel data).
January 1, 2026
Read analysis →