Audio Explainers
Spoken-word analysis — listen while you commute or multitask.
Reading ASEAN correctly
ASEAN's consensus rule is a feature, not a flaw. A short explanation of why the bloc moves slowly on contested issues and what it can deliver when the question is technical. We cover the South China Sea, the ASEAN Way, RCEP, and why treating the bloc like the EU produces frustration on both sides of the negotiation.
Iran-Saudi rapprochement at three years — Yemen, the nuclear file, the limits
The Beijing-brokered diplomatic restoration has held. What it has changed — Yemen ceasefire, Hajj coordination — and what it has not. Why mistaking diplomatic restoration for strategic alignment is the standard analytical error.
Vali Nasr on Iran-Saudi at three — diplomatic restoration, strategic distance
The SAIS scholar on the Beijing-brokered rapprochement after the Gaza durability test. Layer one — embassies, consular services, joint commissions — is mature. Layer two — Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon proxy management — is real. Layer three — strategic alignment — has not moved, and the analytical mistake is conflating the three.
Oliver Stuenkel on Lula 3.0 foreign policy
The FGV São Paulo professor on how Brazil's third Lula term differs from the first two. Broker positioning over membership-seeking, the failed 2023 Ukraine peace plan, the BRICS+ enlargement vote, and the COP30 Belém hosting. Where the diplomatic ambition exceeds the resource base, and what Itamaraty's career service makes of the political investment.
Brazil's hedge — what Lula's multi-alignment doctrine costs and earns
Itamaraty's *autonomia pela diversificação* doctrine in operation. Why Beijing and Washington both find Brazil frustrating, why that frustration is the point, and what would force the doctrine to fail.
Tanvi Madan on the Quad — read the working groups, not the communiqués
The Brookings senior fellow on what the US-India-Japan-Australia Quad actually produces. Maritime domain awareness, vaccine manufacturing, critical-technology principles, infrastructure coordination. Why Indian non-alignment is a feature, not a bug, and why reading the Quad as proto-NATO is the standard Western analytical error.